Friday's September jobs report landed soft. Nonfarm payrolls rose by 29,000 and the unemployment rate was 4.2% (ACTUAL, BLS). Revisions took a combined 60,000 off prior months: July now shows a decline of 10,000 and August was cut to +133,000. Over the prior 12 months payrolls averaged +45,000 a month. The report follows the Federal Reserve's September 16 decision to raise the federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00%, the first increase since July 2023.
The S&P 500 closed Friday at 7,722.72, up 0.73% on the day and 0.3% below the prior Friday's close of 7,743.41 (ACTUAL, FRED). Rate-hike probabilities from third-party tools are not cited here because they could not be verified against a primary source.
This week's calendar is light. Monday brings the final S&P Global services PMI and the ISM Services PMI. Constellation Brands reports Tuesday after the close, and Levi Strauss and Applied Digital follow Wednesday after the close. PepsiCo reports Thursday before the open, and Delta Air Lines reports Friday alongside the preliminary October University of Michigan sentiment reading and the USDA WASDE crop report.
In the second quarter PepsiCo's international businesses grew organic revenue between 4% and 9% each, while PepsiCo Foods North America organic revenue fell 2% (ACTUAL), which the company tied to lower effective net pricing. Organic revenue grew 2.4% in the quarter and 2.5% year to date, so the company is running inside its full-year guidance range of 2% to 4%. The open question for Q3 is whether North America foods stabilizes while international keeps growing.
Delta said its June-quarter earnings topped its own guidance and that it absorbed the highest quarterly fuel expense in its history (company statements; the size of the beat is not quantified here). The September-quarter guidance of $2.00–2.50 per share is open and compares with the $1.56 June actual. Management expects fuel of about $3.15 per gallon all-in for the September quarter (GUIDANCE), well below the $3.93 June-quarter actual. Adjusted revenue excludes third-party refinery sales; total operating revenue was $19.76B (ACTUAL).
The Fed raised the target range to 3.75–4.00% on September 16 (ACTUAL). Friday's jobs report is the first major labor data point since that decision.
September payrolls rose 29,000 (ACTUAL), below the 12-month average of 45,000. July was revised to −10,000 and August to +133,000.
Monday's ISM Services PMI at 10:00 ET and the final S&P Global services PMI at 09:45 ET are the week's main read on the services economy.
Delta guided the September quarter to EPS of $2.00–2.50 and an 11–13% operating margin (GUIDANCE). Friday shows how it compares with the June actual of $1.56 and 8.8%.
International growth of 4% to 9% organic in Q2 offset a 2% organic decline in Foods North America (ACTUAL). Thursday shows whether that gap narrows.
Adjusted fuel cost per gallon was $3.93 in the June quarter (ACTUAL, +75% YoY). Delta's September-quarter outlook assumes about $3.15 all-in (GUIDANCE).
| Ticker | Company | When (ET) | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| RPM | RPM International | Tue AM | Before the open. Call 10:00 ET. Specialty coatings. |
| STZ | Constellation Brands | Tue PM | After the close. Call Wed 08:00 ET. Beverage alcohol. |
| LEVI | Levi Strauss | Wed PM | After the close. Apparel. |
| APLD | Applied Digital | Wed PM | After the close. Call 17:00 ET. AI data-center infrastructure. |
| PEP | PepsiCo | Thu AM | Before the open. Q&A 08:15 ET. See spotlight. |
| DAL | Delta Air Lines | Fri AM | Before the open. Webcast 10:00 ET. See spotlight. |